More than a quarter of WA gas demand could be unmet in 2033 without investment in new projects, review finds

A looming shortage of gas in Western Australia could push up prices for families, add to pressure on manufacturing and wreak havoc on the State’s energy transition. WA will likely face a deficit of gas next year, according to the independent Australian Energy Market Operator’s latest review of the local market to be released on Thursday. The forecasts have worsened since last year and now show an extraordinary 27 per cent of demand could be unmet in a decade if more supply can not be brought online. The tight market will have a major impact on the State’s economy, DomGas Alliance chair Richard Harris told The West Australian. “Without increased supplies of gas, at affordable prices, the State will be reliant on keeping its coal-fired power stations running longer and will be unable to connect the large amount of renewable energy needed to transform WA into a net-zero emission state,” Mr Harris said. Gas will be crucial to keep WA’s lights on, with the amount of the fuel needed for electricity generation expected to surge by more than 56 per cent over the next 10 years. That’s amid a desperate need for back-up electricity supply as the State moves to switch off coal power stations and bring green renewables online. The fresh warning comes as State Parliament’s Domestic Gas inquiry is drafting a report to shake up the policy reserving gas for local use following concerns about a shortage of the crucial energy source. AEMO hinted WA customers may be forced to buy or redirect gas from the global LNG spot market to help cover the shortfall in the near-term, and draw down on storage. Mr Harris pointed the finger at LNG exporters — which he said were not all complying with the intent of the domestic gas rules — as a key reason for the shortage. AEMO executive general manager WA Kate Ryan said the data showed an increasing need for gas supply in WA. “While there are many offshore and onshore undeveloped projects that could supply the WA domestic market, these projects are currently too speculative to include in the potential supply forecasts,” Ms Ryan said. She said Beach Energy — partly owned by Seven Group Holdings — Mitsui & Co’s Waitsia and Woodside Energy’s Scarborough project, would help bring gas into the market. A spokesman said the State Government recognised the “crucial role” gas will play on WA’s decarbonisation journey. He said AEMO’s projections did not fully account for new supply moving through the approvals process, or industry plans to cut carbon.