Gold price reaches a new record and Macquarie tips a march towards $US3500/oz by the end of 2025

An ounce of gold is fetching a new record price and flirting with the $US3000 barrier after Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff talk and unpredictable inflation brightened the precious metal’s safe haven appeal.

Gold hit $US2988 ($4750) per ounce in New York early this morning, having gained more than 12 per cent so far this year.

The latest rise was buoyed by continued uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s trade tariff policies and the release of fresh inflation data in the United States.

The North American country’s inflation for February came in at 2.8 per cent, below economists’ expectations, stoking hopes of an interest rate cut that would be a tailwind for gold’s value.

The price of bullion is set to rise even further, according to the latest prediction from Macquarie. The millionaire factory believes gold could reach $US3500/oz during the September quarter. It has a base case of $US3150/oz pencilled in for the penultimate quarter of 2025.

“It is possible that the imposition of reciprocal tariffs after April 1 will be below market expectations and provide some sentiment relief, but our base case is for weaker global goods demand and industrial production growth to hurt first use commodities consumption,” Macquarie stated on Friday.

“We therefore expect most commodity prices to move lower into the second half, with the majority of physical balances registering global surpluses.

“Gold, however, is a notable exception.”

Macquarie said the US Government’s ballooning debt is another tailwind for gold this year.

“The US budget process should bring the deficit into focus and boost demand for gold, providing a tailwind to precious metals as a whole.”

The US budget deficit for the first five months of the 2025 financial year hit a record $US1.15 trillion, including a $US307b February deficit for President Trump’s first full month in office — an increase of 4 per cent compared to February last year.

Last month, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold prediction to $US3100/oz, while Citi said earlier in February that it expected prices to hit $US3000/oz within three months.

The gold price bonanza elevated ASX-listed gold miners on Friday.

At the close of trade, Ramelius Resources’ stock was up 2.3 per cent, Northern Star Resources 2.8 per cent, Vault Minerals 4.6 per cent, Evolution Mining 4.6 per cent, Regis Resources 5.6 per cent, and Westgold Resources 7.2 per cent.

RBC Capital Markets on Thursday boosted its share price targets on gold miners by an average of 8 per cent on the back of the booming demand for bullion.

“Companies with less gold (price) hedging should benefit most from gold price increases, in our view,” RBC told clients.

“These include Westgold, Regis, De Grey Mining, Gold Road Resources and Evolution Mining.

“Relatively more hedged gold miners include Vault, Bellevue Gold and Northern Star.”

While the smart money is getting behind gold’s bull run extending throughout 2025, there is less optimism for 2026 and beyond.

“Prices are expected to remain elevated by historic standards, but struggle to rally from forecast all-time highs in 2025,” Macquarie stated.

The investment bank reckons gold will average $US2675/oz over 2026 and continue to decline to an average of $US2400/oz during 2028.