Iron ore slides further on lacklustre Chinese support

Iron ore futures have dropped after China stopped short of unveiling fresh fiscal stimulus to shore up the economy.

At a closely watched briefing on Saturday, the finance ministry did pledge more help for the crisis-wracked property sector — a keystone of commodities demand in China — and heavily indebted local authorities, as well as hinting at expanded government borrowing.

But the measures weren’t accompanied by concrete spending proposals, which investors had hoped could run to as much as 2 trillion yuan ($353 billion).

Iron ore fell 0.8 per cent to $US105.40 a tonne in Singapore early on Monday morning. Futures of the steel-making material have been on a roller-coaster this year, climbing above $US140/t in January before sinking below $US90/t last month. The copper market in London has followed a similar trajectory, hitting a record north of $US11,000/t in May before retreating.

Metals had rallied in recent weeks after Beijing launched a barrage of monetary interventions to support growth. But commodities investors have clamoured for further measures on the fiscal side of the equation, which has a more direct impact on consumption of materials, and is needed to replace demand lost to China’s prolonged real estate slump.

As such, the government’s focus on plans to right the property sector will be welcomed by markets, not only through demand for raw materials but because housing is such an important store of wealth for Chinese people.

The housing crisis has of necessity shrunk the sector’s importance to Chinese steel mills, with construction accounting for 24 per cent of consumption in 2023 from 42 per cent in 2011, according to mining giant BHP. Machinery-making by contrast has gone from 20 per cent to 30 per cent in that time, while steel exports have risen sharply over the past two years.

Copper benefits from more widespread applications than steel and has a starring role in the energy transition, although construction still accounts for almost a fifth of the market, according to Citic Securities. Prices of other metals such as aluminium and zinc, and fuels like diesel, are also influenced by the level of activity on building sites, as well as the purchases of durable goods that typically accompany a new home.

It’s the emphasis on boosting consumption which is expected to steer the government’s fiscal response to its economic woes. Decades of urbanisation have saturated the space for metals-intensive state investment in infrastructure, which has become much less reliable as a driver of growth. But, again, the finance’s ministry’s briefing contained few new pointers on how the government plans to lift spending among its citizens.

The extent of China’s challenges on that front were laid bare once again by price data on Sunday, which showed the economy heavily beset by deflationary pressures. Consumer prices rose less than forecast in September, while at the factory-gate they fell for a 24th straight month, underscoring the need for further policy support.

Details — and a price tag — for enhanced fiscal measures could still be forthcoming, perhaps when Chinese legislators meet later in the year. But in the meantime, commodities bulls are likely to draw in their horns until the scale of the government’s support is revealed.

Bloomberg