WA State Election: How much ‘respectability’ WA Liberal Party can win back is big question of election

The campaign for the Western Australian election is now under way, with the state Liberal Party fighting to win back “electorate respectability” after it was almost obliterated in 2021. How the party does will matter not just in WA on March 8, but federally from March 9 when some expect Anthony Albanese to finally call the election. WA was critical at the 2022 federal election, giving Mr Albanese and Labor victory for the first time in nine years. The Liberal Party, which traditionally has been stronger in WA federally, wants back those seats it lost and how the state party does could give an indication of what will happen for the federal Coalition. Both Mr Albanese and federal Liberal leader Peter Dutton have been in Western Australia many times over the past three years. But before they make another return, they will have to watch and wait for the WA poll in four and a half weeks. The WA Election officially kicked off on Wednesday with Governor Chris Dawson issuing writs to formally begin 31 days of campaigning until voters head to the poll on Saturday March 8. The Labor Party is expected to be returned for a third term after its landslide victory in 2021. The WA Liberal Party was almost wiped out at that election, left with just two seats in the Legislative Assembly and seven seats in the Legislative Council. The National Party won more seats in the lower house (four), becoming the state’s official opposition. This will be the first time Premier Roger Cook leads his party to an election after he took over from the hugely popular Mark McGowan, who suddenly resigned in May 2023. Mr McGowan led the state through the pandemic, and gained massive support from the public for closing the state’s borders, which avoided prolonged periods of lockdowns and kept the state’s economy running. During this time, Western Australians lived relatively free lives compared to other parts of the country who were forced into months-long periods of isolation. As a result the Labor Party were rewarded at the polls taking 53 of the 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of 36 seats in the Legislative Council in 2021. While it is unlikely the WA Liberal Party will form government in 2025, party leader Libby Mettam will try to win back as many seats as possible after the party lost traditional electorates in 2021. Perth Lord Mayor and Seven West media personality Basil Zempilas will be running for the Liberal Party in the seat of Churchlands, in one of the most affluent areas of Perth. Earlier this year Mr Zempilas’ campaign manager quit after he commissioned polling on the WA Liberal Party leadership funded by an anonymous businessman causing a crisis for the party. Mr Zempilas denied any knowledge about the polling. The Nationals will also face a new challenge after changes were introduced in how members of the Legislative Council were elected, with electors now voting for any candidate in the state rather than voting for a candidate from a particular electorate. This year the Nationals are running candidates in metro seats alongside the regional seats they have traditionally held. Curtin University Head of the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy John Phillimore said this year the election was about how much the Liberal Party could bring WA politics back to normality. “Nobody’s expecting a Campbell Newman collapse, like in Queensland in 2015 which is the only real comparable example we have of a party with a massive majority actually losing,” he said. “In that case it was different, it was much more controversial, the government sacked a lot of public servants and had a lot of issues. “The Labor government here in Western Australia has been approved and there’s been no major scandals. “Mark McGowan resigned, but he was taken over by his deputy, who was quite well known because he was the health minister during Covid. “There’s nothing to suggest there could be a change of government, so the real question is how much can Libby Mettam bring the Liberal Party back into electorate respectability in terms of numbers? “My best guess would be, if they can get it back to looking like it was in 2017, they’d be very pleased.” Professor Phillimore said 2017 was Labor’s greatest electoral victory in WA winning 41 seats compared to 18 seats combined for the Liberals and Nationals. “If they could get back to that, I think that would be reasonable … they’d be mildly upset but respectability would have been restored,” he said. “If they go better than that they would be very pleased, if they did worse than the 2017 result I think they would be extremely disappointed.” The federal election needs to be held on or before May 18. The WA March 8 election has all but ruled out a federal poll next month, with an April 5 or 12 election tipped. With opinion polls tight, the national outcome could again be swayed on what happens in Western Australia.