Latest Bureau of Meteorology Cyclone Alfred update as category two system nears Queensland, New South Wales

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued updated advice as Tropical Cyclone Alfred nears, now just 140km away from the coast.

The agency warns the system’s slow-moving path will bring extremely dangerous conditions for a longer period.

“Tropical Cyclone Alfred (is) moving slowly towards the southeast Queensland coast. Rainfall and wind impacts are expected to continue increasing today,” BOM said.

• Tropical Cyclone Advice and Forecast Track Maps are being issued for Tropical Cyclone Alfred. These should be referred to for more detailed information.
• Alfred is moving towards the southeast Queensland coast.
• Alfred is likely to remain a category 2 tropical cyclone until it crosses the coast late Friday or early Saturday. Alfred is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength as it moves inland on Saturday morning.
• Southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales will see deteriorating wind, rain and coastal conditions as Alfred approaches and crosses the coast. These conditions are expected to gradually ease during the weekend as remnants of Alfred continue to move inland.

Bureau of Meteorology says don’t fixate on landfall location or category classification

Senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology Miriam Bradbury has warned those in Cyclone Alfred’s path to not get complacent if the landfall location changes.

“We still expect the coastal crossing to occur somewhere between Maroochydore and Coolangatta,” she told Sunrise.

“One thing I really want to emphasise is they’re getting really focused on that exact point of crossing is disregarding the fact that we are expecting the wind, rain and wave impacts over a much, much broader area.

“We’ve already seen those really, really windy conditions picking up across the Gold Coast in the overnight period, plenty of damage already being seen and we’ve heard about the large waves, the damaging surf that’s continuing to erode the beaches and cause inundation.”

Ms Bradbury said Cyclone Alfred is still “being analysed as a category two system”.

“(It is) expected to remain a category two system as it moves toward the coast,” she said.

“We may even see it weaken back to a category one system as it reaches those offshore islands and interacts with that land mass. So crossing the mainland coast as a category one or category two system.

“Again, like that point of crossing, getting fixated on exactly what category it’s going to be is really only taking a look at the top wind gusts.

“The widespread strong to damaging winds will be there, whether it’s a category one or a category two, as well as that heavy rainfall.

BOM shared recommended action

“People between Cape Moreton and Cape Byron, including the Morton Bay Islands should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property,” BOM said in a statement. “People between Cape Byron and Grafton in New South Wales, as well as Brisbane and Double Island Point in Queensland should take precautions and listen to the next advice.”

Updated hazards

“Heavy rainfall bands are continuing to extend over southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales coastal areas,” BOM said.

“Heavy to locally intense rainfall which may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding is expected as Alfred crosses the coast early Saturday morning.

“Once Alfred crosses the coast, it is likely to weaken below tropical cyclone strength during Saturday.

“Despite the weakening, the risk of significant impacts due to widespread heavy rainfall is expected to continue near the coast and extend over adjacent inland areas during the weekend.

Abnormally high tides are likely to continue causing minor flooding of coastal low-lying areas between Double Island Point and Grafton, particularly during tonight’s (early Saturday) high tide.

Damaging surf leading to significant beach erosion remains likely for the open beaches between Double Island Point and Grafton, and further south over the New South Wales coast. Separate Coastal Hazard and Hazardous Surf warnings are current for southeast Queensland and New South Wales coasts.Gales with damaging wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are occurring near the coast between Cape Moreton and Cape Byron. Gales with damaging wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to extend along the remaining southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coastal and island communities between Noosa and Ballina later today as Alfred approaches the coast.

These winds may extend as far south as Grafton and northwards to Double Island Point in the evening or Saturday morning.Destructive wind gusts of up to 155 kilometres per hour are likely to develop about coastal and island locations near, and to the south of, the cyclone centre, as Alfred’s destructive core approaches the coast later today. The destructive winds may persist until Alfred crosses the coast early Saturday morning.Although Alfred is expected to weaken and move inland during Saturday, damaging wind gusts may continue, particularly over elevated terrain during Saturday, before easing throughout during Sunday.