Trump’s announcement may spoil federal election plans as Australia awaits “Liberation Day” tariffs

The greatest adversary of the two men who are vying to be prime minister isn’t each other.

It’s the man sitting 16,000km away in the White House’s Oval Office.

Donald Trump holds the ambitions of Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton in his hands — whether or not the US President knows it or cares.

He’s the unknowable spoiler candidate and every move he makes has the potential to shift the dial in the Federal election.

Australia is waiting nervously to find out just what Mr Trump has in store for the nation in his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs.

There were clues in the US Government’s recently published 2025 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers, a document which lays out its grievances with the trade policies of other countries.

Australia makes the list of the nations to have hurt the US’s feelings, through our restrictions on imports of American beef, pork and poultry; our biosecurity laws handling fruit imports; elements of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme; and the News Media Bargaining Code.

Mr Trump is set to announce what form these “reciprocal” tariffs will take on Wednesday US time. And you can be certain that both sides of politics here in Australia are working through which tack to take with the President and how that will play here at home.

In the early part of this first week of the campaign, Mr Trump’s truculence on tariffs has unexpectedly benefited Mr Albanese.

It has given the Prime Minister an opportunity to position himself in opposition to the President, whose actions Australians are eyeing with increasing concern. Polling out this week show 60 per cent of Australians believe Mr Trump’s re-election has been bad for Australia.

That has emboldened Mr Albanese to go harder against the President, saying that medicines, biosecurity and the news bargaining code were completely off the table.

“Those issues are not up for negotiation from the Australian government,” he told reporters.

“We will defend Australia’s interests.

“The idea that we would weaken biosecurity laws, is really, as my mum would say, cutting off your nose to spite your face.”

The hope is that the tough talk makes Mr Albanese looks strong, and wins a few votes from those who see Mr Trump as a threat to Australia.

And if it benefits our negotiating position against the Americans, all the better.

While the Trump factor is working in Mr Albanese’s favour at the moment, the narrative could flip at any moment, given the President’s predilection for unpredictability.

Mr Dutton is walking a fine line for the Liberals — he has cast himself as the only man who can work positively with Mr Trump, while being careful to avoid the perception that he is too close to a man many Australians believe to pose a danger to our nation.

Both men have made calculated gambles, placing their bets on which position will go down best with the Australian public. Like much to do with Mr Trump, this one is out of their hands.