Ross Taylor: Our relationship with Indonesia ‘more complex’ under Trump

Anthony Albanese met not only with outgoing US President Joe Biden while attending the APEC Summit in Peru last week but also Indonesia’s recently elected President Prabowo Subianto, who was quick to dismiss any concerns or hurt about the Australian PM’s last-minute no-show at his inauguration last month in Jakarta due to commitments back home with King Charles.

That’s notwithstanding the subtle Javanese-style rebuke when the PM’s replacement, Defence Minister Richard Marles, was relegated to 17th place in the line-up of world dignitaries to congratulate the president.

Both Anthony Albanese and Prabowo have met previously, and Prabowo — who is far more interested in foreign affairs than his predecessor — clearly wants a closer relationship with Australia. With Donald Trump sitting in the White House from January, Prabowo may have no choice as he and Albanese have a lot in common when it comes to China and the US:

Despite Prabowo’s warmth towards both Australia and the US, it probably escaped the notice of most Australians that since attaining office only a month ago, Prabowo has reached an agreement with Xi Jinping to “the joint development in areas of the South China Sea where both countries have competing claims” — perhaps hinting that Indonesia may be prepared to give ground over an area that Indonesia, and Australia, have staunchly defended. Indonesia has also conducted defence exercises with Russia and indicated its desire to join not only the OECD but also BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as an alternative trade and, arguably, geopolitical bloc.

While some observers see Prabowo already leaning towards closer links with China, the US remains important to Indonesia and the region. The big test will come if, indeed, Trump takes a big stick to China over trade and also with its expansion in the Indo-Pacific. If this does happen, we may see Trump demanding far greater support from his two mates, Albo and Prabowo, in standing up to China, putting increased pressure on the Australia-Indonesia unity ticket over these issues.

Australia can rightly point to last week’s large joint military exercise off Java — with more than 2000 Indonesian and Australian troops participating — as reinforcement of the close relationship that exists between us and our next-door neighbour. However, we should not be too relaxed as this new nationalistic president will be advancing Indonesia’s self-interest internationally and also lifting the living standards of his people, mostly with the help of countries like China.

The one certain takeaway from this new Donald Trump era therefore, is our immediate regional relationship with Indonesia is about to become more complex and require far more attention by Canberra than has been given in the past.

Ross B Taylor AM is a former WA Commissioner to Indonesia & a board member of the UWA Public Policy Institute.