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Federal election 2025: Battle for Bullwinkel plays out on the doorsteps of voters

It’s 39C and Matt Moran is looking for a home in Kalamunda where the residents can hear him knocking over the rattle of their air conditioner. The next day, Labor’s “red shirts” fan out across Mount Helena to drum up support for Trish Cook. Welcome to the battle for Bullwinkel. WA’s newly created 16th electorate is home to a three-cornered contest between former journalist and staffer Moran for the Liberals, former WA Nationals leader Mia Davies, and nurse and local councillor Cook for Labor. While it’s a Labor seat on paper, all three parties see it as up for grabs and all want it in their column in what looks set to be a hung parliament. Underscoring its importance, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton stood alongside their Bullwinkel candidates in the past week. The geography divides it roughly into thirds: the rural Wheatbelt area, which is Nats country; the outer-suburban Perth Hills, which has historically leaned Liberal but recently turned progressive; and the suburban foothills where it’s more Labor territory with a mixture of Liberal. However, the bulk of the population is in the metropolitan areas and — even if they are conservative — they have never voted for the Nationals. Cost of living is the major issue but environment and climate also crop up in the bushfire-prone Hills, along with healthcare, housing, and the live sheep export ban. Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras believes the victor will be decided by whomever comes second on primary vote. If it’s Moran, Nationals preferences would likely tip him into the seat. It’s the same in reverse for Davies. Samaras does not believe Labor will win. “It’s a seat I still would expect Dutton to pick up … if there’s one seat they’re going to get, that will be it,” he said. The Nationals did not fare as well as they had hoped in the overlapping Hills electorates in March, with their primary vote in single digits. Labor’s Stephen Price held on to Forrestfield, while Liberal Adam Hort took Kalamunda by just 82 votes. Labor was initially confident about Bullwinkel but insiders now think it will be the toughest of their target seats in WA. It means the ground game to pitch directly to voters is vital. Labor has long honed its campaigning machine and its operation is formidable to watch in action. Six volunteers joined Cook for a doorknocking effort on the day The Sunday Times tagged along in March. In a pre-game briefing, they canvassed the day’s key message (Labor’s promise to build an urgent care clinic in Mundaring) and talking points for other issues, such as Cook’s position on the controversial North Stoneville development, before heading off in pairs along routes on a colour-coded map. It was Cook’s first election campaigning in this style, despite two stints on the Shire of Mundaring. “Are you with the red team?” one volunteer asked people between worrying privately about slipping on honky nuts and expressing frustration that the Liberals and Nationals have put up campaign posters against council rules. One woman answered her door in her pyjamas, saying she was home sick from work. Cook slips into nurse-mode, checking if she’s seen a doctor before slipping in mention of the promised urgent care clinic. Later, the woman said that the way she had been embedded in the local community for more than 12 years put her in good stead for knowing what people wanted. “I think that’s my advantage against the other candidates, because they’re not local. They have ties, and I grant that, but they’re not local,” she said. “I’m not using it as a stepping stone for my own personal career. I’m actually doing it because it’s what I’ve always done and I’m just leaning in.” Although the seat is geographically diverse, she said that overall people had the same issues: times were tough, housing was a problem — especially for renters — and phone services needed improving. “One lady said the other night she hadn’t been to a doctor for two years because she just couldn’t afford it. These are the things that kind of inspire me to keep going,” Cook said. “As a nurse, that’s the last thing I want people to be doing, is putting their health on the backburner.” In contrast to Labor’s team effort, Moran went doorknocking in Kalamunda, clad in a Liberal blue t-shirt and Keep the Sheep hat, accompanied only by an old-hand campaigner Anthony, who says little. He’s not offering policy but rather introducing himself to people. “I’m a Kalamunda boy born and bred, Afghanistan veteran…” Moran starts his pitch when someone answers the door. “I hope I get your vote, ma’am, in the Federal election.” He’s knocked on 3500 doors since being preselected in 2024, saying he believes “the way you campaign is a reflection of the way you represent” — and that means speaking to people. “A lot of campaigning you do by yourself, and you just go out there and you just listen,” he told The Sunday Times. “You get a very good understanding what people care about, what they’re concerned about. They feel neglected by Labor.” Moran has deep family connections to the area, which comes up as the people who are home recognise the surname. “You’re related to Peter?” one couple ask. Moran confirms it’s his uncle. “He was a good plumber, a very good plumber,” they reply. Moran also is conscious of the geographic diversity of the new electorate, saying its voters need someone who understands both the regional and the metro areas. But he will not be drawn on the three-cornered contest with the Nationals. Nor will he canvass what he sees as the biggest threat to his campaign. “I’m just focusing on my own campaign,” he said repeatedly. “I’m working hard, I’m listening, I’m offering fresh ideas. I’m energetic. And I think that’s the critical element on this seat.” Davies, on the other hand, speaks with the confidence of a seasoned politician, not afraid of frankness and straying from party lines. The Sunday Times caught up with her packing up her State parliamentary office after 16 years, unearthing treasures and long-lost items. Framed Alston cartoons, photos from her time as a minister and old campaign material are stacked up while a workman up a ladder fiddles in the roof behind the door. She has already offloaded her Perth residence and shifted everything to her Northam home; the end of an era and what she hopes will be the start of a new one. Davies declared in 2024 that if she got to Canberra, her sights were on the deputy prime minister role. “The task is to get elected but I don’t intend, if I’m going to Canberra, to sit on the backbench and be a seat warmer,” she said. “In these uncertain times, internationally and nationally, where there is so much at stake, you also need someone that can hit the ground running from day one. “It’s not really the time for rookie candidates.” But Davies acknowledged that her biggest challenge would be the fact the Nationals brand was new to much of the electorate. She was pitching herself as a third-party alternative despite having promised to sit in the Coalition party room, unlike Tony Crook 15 years ago. “We quite often have a conversation about the Coles and the Woolworths of politics — so Liberal and Labor — and for a vast majority of the seat that has been their option,” she said. “Giving them an alternative, but giving them an alternative that allows them to change government … I think is something that is going to make it a really interesting seat to watch.” Given the pitch, a senior Labor source said there were cheers across party HQ this week when Davies positioned herself prominently behind Dutton as he held a press conference in WA this week. Moran was not in camera shot. It boosts Labor’s counterargument that Davies is just another of Dutton’s candidates — not some independent third option. Davies insists the Nationals are different because “we are prepared to flex our muscles on things that matter”. But she said the best thing for the voters of Bullwinkel in the election was the competition. “People are understanding that for the first time in a long time, their area actually matters, that they’re not going to be overlooked, and that there will be interest from all political parties,” she said. “So I think that’s a good outcome.”

The West Australian exclusiveFederal election 2025: Battle for Bullwinkel plays out on the doorsteps of voters

exclusive
Federal election 2025: Battle for Bullwinkel plays out on the doorsteps of voters